Stockpiling Antivirals In Case of Pandemic Not Cost-Effective for Most Countries

drug stockpile

Published February 1, 2011, last updated on March 19, 2013 under Research News

Stockpiling antiviral drugs significantly reduces the number of deaths and total costs of a pandemic, but researchers at the Duke-NUS Graduate Medical School  and Duke University Medical Center have found that many nations can’t afford to buy and maintain a reserve supply of essential antivirals under current prices. 

Published today in the Journal of Royal Society Interface, new research shows that the ideal stockpile size to cover up to 25% of a country’s population should a pandemic occur is too expensive for approximately two thirds of the world population. The research team, which includes Duke-NUS Professor of Medicine and DGHI Affiliate David Matchar, based its results on the World Health Organziation’s cost effectiveness target of three times the per capita gross national income. The countries considered in this analysis include Brazil, China, Guatemala, India, Indonesia, New Zealand, Singapore, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Zimbabwe. 

With the development of an epidemic-economic computer model for this study, the authors found that low-cost generic antivirals would make stockpiling effective for countries with large populations, such as China, India and Indonesia. However, generic antiviral medications would not be cost-effective for Zimbabwe and other countries with a similar profile.

Based on these findings, the authors recommend further international cooperation and a global network of generic national antiviral stockpiles to avoid substantial economic impacts and fatalities when the next influenza pandemic emerges.

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